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Peter Ince, , pince@fs.fed.us (Presenter)
Andrew Kramp, US Forest Products Laboratory, akramp@fs.fed.us
Prakash Nepal, LSU Agcenter/US Forest Products Lab, pnepal@fs.fed.us
Kenneth Skog, , kskog@fs.fed.us

 

We used the RPA forest assessment market model to produce a new 2012 baseline outlook with economic projections from 2006 to 2030 for US forest product markets and timber demands. This baseline outlook reflects our latest market projections along with recent historical trends. We had used the same model last year to analyze a set of longer-range alternative scenarios with 50-year projections for the Forest Service nationwide RPA forest assessment, however in this case we focus more closely on recent and near-term market trends. The analysis in this case incorporates macroeconomic projections from the USDA Economics Research Service, including projections of real GDP and population growth to 2030 for all countries worldwide, along with our updated outlook for US housing construction. Results include projections of U.S. consumption, production and net trade for leading categories of forest products, including paper and paperboard, lumber, structural wood panels, and wood energy, along with corresponding projections of timber market trends. Results include sensitivity analysis with respect to variation in key economic parameters.